Peter Kelner of YouGov online polls, writing in Evening Standard for Tuesday 6 May 2008, explains why YouGov won the pollster test and how the rest can do a better job. YouGov were slagged-off for saying Boris would edge Ken out. But YouGov were correct. The others were sloppy.
05h43-BST Thursday 08 May 2008
Peter Kelner is the boss of YouGov which is the election pollster of the Evening Standard. YouGov accurately predicted the result of the relative positions of Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson in the election of Lord Mayor of London. The final forecast by YouGov said Boris would win by 53-47 per cent. The other polls attacked YouGov. But both Boris and YouGov won.
In a piece for the Standard on Tuesday 6 May 2008, Peter Kelner told the losers who had been dumping on their now-proven superior what they ought to do if they desired to get their ass in gear in future. Amongst his careful “advice to the traditional polling companies” (well-worth reading in full if you can find it) is a point that reflects social and technological changes:
“…Response rates for telephone polling companies in London are worse than in the rest of Britain. Well under 20 per cent of calls result in an interview. And, because telephone pollsters dial only landline numbers, they question too many people who stay at home, and too few of the many Londoners who lead socially active lives. In contrast, YouGov’s panel members can respond to our surveys at any time from any computer within a 48-hour window.”
It is very generous of Peter Kelner to reveal to his competitors why they are crashing in flames. What we see revealed in this incident is that there is no substitute for brains backed by hard work. The other pollsters perhaps think it is enough to ponce around using old ways whilst making sexy PR and image as in so much of the world of work today. YouGov has a better, perhaps older, idea: get the job right. (Gee, I wish I could do that.)
FIN 06h27
